A statistical theory of optimal decision-making in sports betting Wunderlich and Memmert 28 analyze the counterintuitive relationship between the accuracy of a forecasting model and its subsequent profitability, showing that the two are not generally monotonic. Despite these prior works, idealized statistical answers to the critical questions facing parimatch sign up the bettor, namely what games to wager on, and on what side to bet, have not been proposed. Similarly, the theoretical limits on wagering accuracy, and under what statistical…